TE TemporalEjentumCorrectness Flip

TE-V2-25

+47.6pp
0.191 baseline → 0.667 Haki

The Scores

Opus 4.6 Thinking · Baseline

0.191
Correctness1/3
Reasoning Depth1/3
Self-Monitoring0/3
Verification0/3
Epistemic Honesty0/3
Alternatives0/3
Audit Trail2/3

Opus 4.6 Thinking · Ki

0.500
Correctness1/3
Reasoning Depth2/3
Self-Monitoring1/3
Verification2/3
Epistemic Honesty1/3
Alternatives0/3
Audit Trail3/3

Opus 4.6 Thinking · Haki

0.667
Correctness3/3
Reasoning Depth2/3
Self-Monitoring2/3
Verification2/3
Epistemic Honesty2/3
Alternatives1/3
Audit Trail3/3

The Task

A software project has 5 sequential phases: Design (D), Implementation (I), Testing (T), Deployment (Dep), and Monitoring (M). Estimated durations: D=2 weeks, I=6 weeks, T=3 weeks, Dep=1 week, M=2 weeks. Historical data shows: 80% of projects exceed the Implementation estimate by 50-100%. Testing always takes 1 week longer than the overage in Implementation (if Implementation goes 3 weeks over, Testing goes 1 week over). Deployment is fixed at 1 week. Monitoring starts 1 week BEFORE Deployment completes (overlap). Using the PESSIMISTIC estimates (100% Implementation overage), what is the total project duration?

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The Outputs

Claude Opus 4.6 with extended thinking at maximum effort. Blind evaluation.

Opus 4.6 Thinking · Baseline

**Pessimistic scenario calculation:** - **D** = 2 weeks - **I** = 6 + 100% overage = 6 + 6 = 12 weeks (overage = 6 weeks) - **T** = 3 + (overage - 1) = 3 + (6 - 1) = 3 + 5 = 8 weeks - **Dep** = 1 week (fixed) - **M** = 2 weeks, but starts 1 week before Deployment completes (1 week overlap with Dep) **Timeline:** Sequential: D → I → T → Dep → M, with M overlapping Dep by 1 week. Total = 2 + 12 + 8 + 1 + 2 - 1 (overlap) = **24 weeks**

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Opus 4.6 Thinking · Ki

## Solution **Base estimates:** D=2, I=6, T=3, Dep=1, M=2 ### Pessimistic adjustments (100% Implementation overage) | Phase | Base | Adjustment | Adjusted | |-------|------|-----------|----------| | **Design** | 2 wk | none | **2 wk** | | **Implementation** | 6 wk | +100% overage = +6 wk | **12 wk** | | **Testing** | 3 wk | +1 wk (the rule: any I overage → T goes 1 wk over) | **4 wk** | | **Deployment** | 1 wk | fixed | **1 wk** | | **Monitoring** | 2 wk | starts 1 wk before Dep completes | **2 wk** | ### Testing overage interpretation The problem states: *"Testing always takes 1 week longer than the overage in Implementation (if Implementation goes 3 weeks over, Testing goes 1 week over)."* The parenthetical example is definitive — regardless of how large the I overage is, Testing goes **1 week over** its estimate. ### Timeline with overlap - **D:** weeks 1–2 - **I:** weeks 3–14 (12 weeks) - **T:** weeks 15–18 (4 weeks) - **Dep:** week 19 (1 week) - **M:** weeks 19–20 — Monitoring starts 1 week before Deployment completes. Since Dep is exactly 1 week, M starts at the **same time** as Dep, creating a 1-week overlap. Sequential sum: 2 + 12 + 4 + 1 + 2 = 21 weeks Overlap: −1 week (M and Dep run concurrently for 1 week) ### **Total project duration: 20 weeks**

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Opus 4.6 Thinking · Haki

## Pessimistic Project Duration Calculation ### Phase-by-Phase Breakdown **Design:** 2 weeks (no overage stated) **Implementation (100% overage):** - Estimate: 6 weeks - 100% overage = +6 weeks - Actual: **12 weeks** **Testing (cascading overage from Implementation):** - The rule: "if Implementation goes 3 weeks over, Testing goes 1 week over" - This establishes a 3:1 ratio (linear scaling) - Implementation went 6 weeks over → Testing goes **+2 weeks** over - Actual: 3 + 2 = **5 weeks** **Deployment:** Fixed at **1 week** **Monitoring (overlap):** - Duration: 2 weeks - Starts 1 week **before** Deployment completes - Since Deployment = 1 week total, Monitoring starts at the **same time Deployment starts** - Monitoring ends 2 weeks after Deployment starts = **1 week after Deployment ends** ### Timeline | Phase | Start | End | |-------|-------|-----| | Design | Week 0 | Week 2 | | Implementation | Week 2 | Week 14 | | Testing | Week 14 | Week 19 | | Deployment | Week 19 | Week 20 | | Monitoring | Week 19 | **Week 21** | ### Total Project Duration: **21 weeks** Key drivers: - Implementation absorbs the biggest hit: 6 → 12 weeks (+6) - Testing cascades: 3 → 5 weeks (+2) - Monitoring's 1-week overlap with Deployment saves 1 week vs. fully sequential (which would be 22 weeks)

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Source: ejbench_production/payloads.json. Injection payloads, generation outputs, and rubric judgments available on GitHub.